The Houston Texans solidified their status as contenders in the AFC by defeating the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. Now, they face the struggling New England Patriots, who have lost four consecutive games and are currently in contention for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Despite the Texans’ favorable position, it’s crucial to approach this matchup with caution. This NFL season has seen several teams fail to cover large spreads or even lose outright as favorites. Could the Texans fall into the same trap against the Patriots?
Game Odds, Spread, and Total
As of now, here’s how the odds stack up for the Texans vs. Patriots game, according to HoustonStressAns.com:
Spread:
Texans -7 (-108)
Patriots +7 (-112)
Moneyline:
Texans -330
Patriots +265
Total Points:
OVER 37.5 (-110)
UNDER 37.5 (-110)
Game Details
Date: Sunday, October 13
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Broadcast: CBS
Team Records
Texans: 4-1
Patriots: 1-4
Betting Trends
The Texans are 1-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
The UNDER has hit in four of the Texans' last five games.
Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five encounters with the Patriots.
New England is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
The OVER has been successful in 10 of the last 14 matchups between these teams.
The Patriots have lost their last seven home games.
Injury Reports
Houston Texans
British Brooks, RB: Doubtful
Christian Harris, LB: IR
Dameon Pierce, RB: Questionable
Tytus Howard, OT: Questionable
Jake Hansen, LB: Questionable
Joe Mixon, RB: Questionable
Nico Collins, WR: Questionable
Jimmie Ward, S: Questionable
New England Patriots
David Andrews, C: IR
K.J. Osborn, WR: Questionable
Kyle Dugger, S: Questionable
Jabrill Peppers, S: Questionable
Caedan Wallace, OT: Questionable
Key Players to Watch
Houston Texans
Stefon Diggs: With Nico Collins likely unavailable, Stefon Diggs is poised to become the Texans’ primary wide receiver. Diggs has had an impressive season thus far, boasting 31 receptions and two touchdowns. His performance will be crucial as he aims to step up in Collins' absence.
New England Patriots
Antonio Gibson: The Patriots’ running back has shown promise recently, accumulating 207 yards on 35 carries, averaging 5.9 yards per rush. If Gibson continues this level of productivity, he could form a formidable backfield duo alongside Rhamondre Stevenson.
Prediction and Betting Pick
Although big favorites have struggled to cover the spread this season, this matchup presents a strong case for the Texans to break that trend.
Analyzing the teams, it’s clear that the Patriots have weaknesses that the Texans can exploit. New England's defense ranks 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent Dropback EPA. In contrast, the Texans thrive in the passing game, which could lead to significant issues for the Patriots.
Furthermore, the Patriots have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, with quarterback Jacoby Brissett facing pressure on over 31% of his dropbacks. This statistic is particularly alarming as the Texans rank sixth in sack percentage, which could lead to a challenging day for Brissett.
Given these factors, the matchup heavily favors the Texans. They are in a position to capitalize on New England’s defensive shortcomings while also taking advantage of the Patriots’ struggles on offense.
Final Pick
With all these elements in play, I’m confident in laying the points with the Texans. They’ve demonstrated their potential to dominate against weaker opponents, and this matchup is no exception.
Pick: Texans -7 (-108)
As the Texans look to solidify their status as legitimate playoff contenders, fans and bettors alike will be keenly watching how they handle this critical game against the struggling Patriots.
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