Texans vs. Cowboys Preview: Monday Night Football Rivalry Showdown

Zach Tarrant/Houston Texans

This matchup between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football once promised to be a marquee in-state rivalry game between two playoff teams from 2023. While the Texans have upheld some expectations with a 6-4 record, they’ve underperformed in key moments, including a heartbreaking 23-7 halftime lead blown against the Detroit Lions last Sunday night. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have taken a nosedive to a disappointing 3-6 record, going winless at home (0-4).

For Houston, this is the perfect chance to rebound, cleanse the sour taste of last week's loss, and re-establish their footing against a struggling Cowboys squad that has been decimated by injuries, including the season-ending loss of quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring surgery). Adding fuel to the fire is the in-state rivalry factor, which would make this victory especially sweet for Texans fans.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series 4-2, including a 27-23 victory in 2022 at AT&T Stadium, but this game presents a golden opportunity for the Texans to narrow the gap and continue their playoff push.

Injury Report

Texans

• Returning: WR Nico Collins (missed five games with a hamstring injury), RB Dameon Pierce, and CB Jeff Okudah.

• Out/Likely Out: DE Will Anderson Jr., DT Foley Fatukasi, CB Kamari Lassiter (concussion), and swing tackle Blake Fisher (concussion).

  
  

Cowboys

• Potentially Out: DBs DaRon Bland and Jourdan Lewis, FB/RB Hunter Luepke.

• Out: QB Dak Prescott (hamstring surgery).

Storylines

• Diggs vs. Diggs Delayed Again

  This game was supposed to showcase the highly anticipated matchup between brothers Stefon Diggs (Texans WR) and Trevon Diggs (Cowboys CB). Unfortunately, Stefon tore his ACL earlier this season, shelving this storyline once again.

• Dalton Schultz Reunion

  Texans TE Dalton Schultz faces his former team for the first time after offseason comments on The Pat McAfee Show about the Cowboys’ facilities being “like a zoo,” referring to their transparent weight room.

• Stroud vs. Parsons

  Texans QB C.J. Stroud and Cowboys DE Micah Parsons share a close bond, built through podcasts, international trips, and draft coverage. Their brotherly relationship adds a fun wrinkle to this game, as both are fierce competitors who thrive on trash talk and high stakes.

Keys to the Game

Offense

1. Dominate the Ground Game

   The Cowboys have the league’s second-worst run defense, allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game (via Pro Football Reference). Although the Texans’ rushing attack has struggled at times, averaging 119.4 rushing yards per game, the return of Joe Mixon has revitalized the ground game. Houston must exploit this mismatch early and often to control the game’s tempo.

2. Protect C.J. Stroud

   The Texans' offensive line has been among the league’s worst in pass protection, allowing a 41.3% pressure rate (NextGen Stats). Last week’s new lineup, featuring Jarrett Patterson at center and Juice Scruggs at left guard, showed promise but remains a work in progress. Facing a Cowboys defense with a 39.1% pressure rate (5th in the NFL), the Texans must neutralize Micah Parsons, likely using tight ends and running backs to chip.

Defense

1. Stop CeeDee Lamb

   Lamb is the Cowboys’ lone offensive bright spot, and Texans HC DeMeco Ryans will likely deploy double coverage with safety help rather than shadowing him with Derek Stingley Jr.. Houston must limit Lamb’s impact, especially on third downs.

2. Pressure Cooper Rush

   The Cowboys’ backup QB has limited experience, making it essential for Houston to pressure him early with their league-leading 41.7% pressure rate. Even without Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter remains a force, leading the NFL with 62 pressures this season (NextGen Stats).

   
   

Game Plan

This game should mirror the Texans’ 41-21 win over New England, focusing on a defensive-driven approach. A conservative offensive style—relying on the run, avoiding turnovers, and creating favorable field position—can help Houston build an early lead and force Dallas into predictable passing downs.

With the Cowboys’ offense struggling, featuring only one reliable weapon in Lamb, a subpar run game, and a backup quarterback, the Texans’ defense should create multiple turnover opportunities. This game is a chance for Houston to remind everyone of their dominance, despite this season’s ups and downs.

Prediction: Texans 42 Cowboys 23