As the Houston Texans gear up to face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, all eyes are on whether the Texans can maintain the momentum from last season, where they soared from last in their division to clinching the AFC South title. On the other hand, the Colts, coming off a season in which their rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was sidelined early, are looking for redemption, especially after a close, hard-fought Week 18 loss to the Texans last year. This matchup promises to be a tight, divisional battle with much on the line for both teams.
A Look Back: Colts vs. Texans in 2023
In last season’s meetings between the two teams, both road squads managed to capture victories. The Texans, who had been languishing at the bottom of the AFC South the year prior, made a stunning turnaround, ultimately securing a playoff win. One of the key factors in their resurgence was the addition of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who transformed their passing game and helped elevate Houston into Super Bowl contention discussions.
The Colts, meanwhile, dealt with their own set of challenges last year, the biggest being the loss of Anthony Richardson after just four games. Despite this, Indianapolis posted a respectable 9-8 record. With Richardson back in action for Week 1 of this season, the Colts are hopeful that they can build off their success when he was healthy—after all, Richardson led the Colts to an 11-point win against Houston in Week 2 last year.
Week 1 Showdown: What’s on the Line
This Week 1 matchup is a rematch of that pivotal Week 18 game, which ultimately decided the AFC South title in favor of the Texans. In that game, the Colts were inches away from pulling off a dramatic win, finding themselves on Houston’s doorstep late in the fourth quarter. However, a dropped pass on a key fourth down play sealed their fate. You can bet that the memory of that missed opportunity still lingers in the minds of the Colts, adding some extra fuel to the fire for this season opener.
With both teams coming into the game with high expectations, it’s shaping up to be a tightly contested affair. While Houston is the slight favorite, Indianapolis has plenty of reasons to be optimistic, especially given Richardson’s return to the lineup. When Richardson was on the field last year, the Colts looked like a different team, and with him leading the offense again, they’re hoping to recreate their early success from 2023.
Key Prediction: Colts Win as Home Underdogs
Despite the Texans being favored by 2.5 points, I’m predicting that the Indianapolis Colts will claim an outright win as home underdogs. Several factors point toward the Colts having a strong chance in this matchup. First and foremost, they have the advantage of home-field support, which can make all the difference in a divisional game. More importantly, divisional underdogs tend to perform exceptionally well in early-season matchups. Historically, divisional underdogs have covered the spread at a rate of over 56% in September games, and home underdogs have done so at a slightly better clip.
In addition, when the previous meeting between the two teams was a close one—within a touchdown, for example—underdogs have historically fared well, winning outright at a notable rate. This trend is particularly strong when teams meet again in the following season, with underdogs pulling off outright victories about 40% of the time. With Indianapolis falling just short of a win in their last meeting with the Texans, they could be primed to reverse their fortune in this Week 1 clash.
Texans' Star to Watch: Nico Collins
If you’re looking for a standout player to watch for Houston, Nico Collins is the man to keep an eye on. Despite the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who is expected to dominate targets this season, Collins has proven to be a reliable and dangerous weapon, particularly against the Colts. Last season, Collins torched Indianapolis in both meetings, racking up over 100 yards in each game. In their crucial Week 18 encounter, Collins hauled in nine catches for an eye-popping 195 yards.
While Diggs may command the lion’s share of attention from the defense, Collins has shown time and time again that he can take advantage of favorable matchups and produce big plays. He cleared 65.5 receiving yards in eight of the 15 games in which he played significant snaps last season, making him a solid bet to hit the over on his receiving yards in this game as well.
Why Collins is Poised for Success Again
Collins has a history of success against the Colts, and it’s difficult to see that changing this season. The Colts did little to shore up their secondary, which struggled mightily in 2023. Indianapolis ranked 21st in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), and two of their worst defensive performances in the secondary came against none other than the Texans.
The Colts’ top cornerback, Kenny Moore II, primarily operates out of the slot, meaning he won’t see much of Collins, who ran just 20% of his routes from the slot last season. Instead, Collins is likely to be matched up against Indianapolis' outside corners, JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, neither of whom performed well in coverage last year. With grades of 64.5 and 55.8 from PFF, respectively, both corners present favorable matchups for Collins, who was rated as the third-best receiver in the league last year by PFF.
If Collins can exploit these matchups as he did last season, expect him to have another big game. While Diggs might see more targets overall, Collins has the potential to be the difference-maker in this contest, especially with how porous the Colts’ secondary looked last year.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
This Week 1 clash between the Texans and Colts is bound to be a nail-biter. Both teams are eager to get off to a strong start, and with a divisional rivalry at play, the intensity is sure to be high. While the Texans are favored to win, I’m leaning toward the Colts pulling off an upset at home.
The return of Anthony Richardson gives Indianapolis a dynamic edge on offense that they lacked for most of last season. Richardson’s ability to make plays with his arm and legs could prove difficult for Houston’s defense to contain. And while the Texans are undoubtedly a talented squad, particularly on defense, the Colts’ familiarity with their division rival, combined with the strong historical trend favoring divisional underdogs, leads me to predict a Colts victory.
For my final score prediction, I see Indianapolis coming out on top in a tight battle, winning 28-14. Look for Richardson to lead a balanced attack, while the Colts' defense finds a way to keep Houston’s offense in check just enough to secure the win.
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