The Houston Texans travel to Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday for a highly anticipated playoff showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. This game serves as a rematch of their December 21st meeting, where the Chiefs prevailed 27-19 in a hard-fought contest. While the Chiefs had more at stake in that game, fighting to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Texans were already locked into their playoff spot. As such, it’s important to view that game in context: a competitive effort in a hostile environment, despite several setbacks.
For the Texans, that game represented an opportunity to prove themselves as legitimate contenders in the AFC. While the loss stung, it highlighted Houston’s ability to compete with the league’s elite, even in adverse conditions. The Texans walked into a raucous Arrowhead crowd, played in frigid temperatures, and kept the game within one possession. However, the game wasn’t without its casualties, as key injuries to safety Jimmie Ward and wide receiver Tank Dell changed the complexion of the contest. Let’s break down the major takeaways from that game and preview what to expect this Sunday.
Revisiting the December Matchup: Key Takeaways
Tank Dell’s Breakout and Heartbreak
Tank Dell’s performance against the Chiefs was a bittersweet milestone. Dell had begun to emerge as a key weapon for C.J. Stroud, catching a touchdown pass before suffering a devastating season-ending knee injury early in the third quarter. The injury not only robbed the Texans of one of their most dynamic playmakers but also appeared to emotionally impact Stroud, who was visibly shaken on the sidelines.
Post-injury, Stroud’s completion percentage dropped by 18.8%, and he faced a pressure rate of 69.2%, up from 26.7% before Dell’s exit (per Next Gen Stats). The increased pressure was a combination of factors: receivers struggled to separate, forcing Stroud to hold the ball longer, and the Chiefs’ defensive line capitalized on the Texans’ vulnerabilities.
Defensive Adjustments and Domino Effects
The Texans’ defense faced significant challenges after Jimmie Ward left the game due to injury. Ward’s absence forced rookie Kamari Lassiter to shift to the nickel role, a move that disrupted the Texans’ defensive depth. This reshuffling left the team without a well-prepared contingency plan for the outside cornerback position, where Jeff Okudah had to step in as CB2. The lack of preparation for this scenario created mismatches that Mahomes and Reid exploited effectively. The secondary’s struggles weren’t purely individual errors but a reflection of a domino effect that impacted the entire defensive structure.
The Texans’ reliance on man coverage—48.9% of dropbacks, their highest rate of the season—further exposed the secondary. While the strategy created moments of pressure, it also opened the door for Mahomes to rack up 151 yards against man, his highest total of the year. This domino effect underscores the importance of a comprehensive backup game plan, especially against a quarterback as dynamic as Mahomes.
Strategic Reserve by DeMeco Ryans?
There’s a compelling argument that DeMeco Ryans may have held back strategically in the December matchup, knowing a playoff rematch was possible. This theory gains weight when considering last year’s playoff adjustments against Cleveland, where Ryans unleashed a shadow coverage scheme with Derek Stingley Jr. to shut down Amari Cooper, a tactic noticeably absent in their regular-season meeting. Additionally, Ryans’ defensive line usage in last week’s win against the Chargers—employing a five-man front 31.5% of the time, the highest rate under Ryans—suggests he’s willing to make bold, game-specific adjustments in the postseason.
What’s Different This Time?
Both teams will field key players who missed the initial matchup, altering the dynamics on both sides of the ball:
Texans Returning Players:
Azeez Al-Shaair: The Texans’ defensive captain and green-dot wearer is expected to return from suspension. Al-Shaair’s ability to defend tight ends, stop the run, and call defensive adjustments will be crucial.
Foley Fatukasi: The Texans’ primary run-stuffer made an immediate impact in last week’s win against the Chargers and will be vital in limiting the Chiefs’ ground game.
Chiefs Returning Players:
Jaylen Watson: The cornerback’s return bolsters Kansas City’s secondary depth.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: Brown’s speed and veteran presence add another dimension to the Chiefs’ passing attack.
National Media Doubt
Despite Houston’s impressive turnaround this season, national media continues to doubt their legitimacy. Last week, pundits like Rex Ryan called the Texans a “bye week,” only to watch them eliminate the Chargers. This week, Nick Wright claimed the Chiefs’ matchup with Houston would be their “last practice of the year,” while Stephen A. Smith and Paul Pierce echoed similar sentiments. Pierce even vowed to walk 15 miles to work if the Texans pull off the upset.
This narrative has fueled the Texans’ underdog mentality, embodied by the #HoustonVsEverybody mantra. The Texans have thrived in this role, and fans are rallying behind the team as they look to shock the football world once again.
Expanded Keys to the Game
Offensive Keys
Pass to Open the Run
The Chiefs’ defense is one of the most effective in the NFL at shutting down the run early, particularly by disrupting plays in the backfield. According to Next Gen Stats:
Contact Rate: Kansas City contacted rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 49.4% of designed runs this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Explosive Runs Allowed: The Chiefs allowed explosive runs on just 8.0% of attempts, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Yards Before Contact: Their defense permitted only 0.8 yards before contact per carry, ranking sixth-best.
For the Texans, attempting to force the run early against such a stout unit risks setting up the offense for failure with second-and-long or third-and-long scenarios. Instead, a quick-pass approach can loosen the Chiefs’ front, making it easier to establish the run later in the game.
Why Pass to Open the Run?
Neutralizing Kansas City’s Defensive Strengths: The Chiefs’ ability to dominate the line of scrimmage forces running backs to work harder for every yard. By focusing on short, efficient passes early in drives, the Texans can exploit the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies and keep their linebackers and safeties from keying on the run.
Quick Passing Game Impact: The Texans can utilize slants, hitches, and quick outs to attack the Chiefs’ linebackers and corners before the pass rush has time to reach Stroud.
Targeting Dalton Schultz in the short-to-intermediate passing game will be critical. The Chiefs allowed a league-high 1,191 passing yards to tight ends this season, with a success rate of 58.1% against those targets.
Utilizing Nico Collins’ Skill Set: Nico Collins leads the NFL in receiving yards as an isolated receiver, with 545 yards (+164 over expected). His ability to win quick one-on-one matchups makes him an ideal target to exploit Kansas City’s man coverage, particularly on slants and in-breaking routes.
Collins’ Role: By isolating Collins in quick-developing plays, the Texans can create high-percentage throws that allow him to use his size and athleticism to generate yards after the catch (YAC).
Lightening the Box: As the Chiefs adjust to defend the pass, their defensive front will inevitably loosen. This opens the door for Houston to exploit softer boxes in the second half, creating more favorable running conditions for Joe Mixon.
Key Stat: Kansas City’s pass rush effectiveness drops significantly when they blitz and fail to reach the quarterback. By using quick passes, the Texans can neutralize their blitz-heavy approach and create space for the ground game.
Success Through Rhythm: A Proven Formula
In their Wild Card win against the Chargers, the Texans utilized this approach effectively. Quick passes early in drives spread out the Chargers’ defense, allowing Houston to open the run game in the second half. The result was sustained drives and a balanced offensive attack that ultimately wore down the Chargers’ front.
Texans Rushing Impact: The quick-passing strategy allowed Houston to average 5.1 yards per carry in the second half of the game, up from just 3.2 in the first half.
The Mahomes Connection
The Texans can also take a cue from Patrick Mahomes’ approach in the December meeting:
Quick Passes’ Success Rate: Mahomes completed 17 of 19 passes (89.5%) in under 2.5 seconds, generating 155 yards and a touchdown against the Texans.
This approach kept the Texans’ pass rush at bay, and Houston can adopt a similar style to neutralize Kansas City’s aggressiveness.
Expected Outcomes
By committing to a pass-to-run strategy, the Texans can:
Control the Clock: Sustained drives with high-percentage completions will keep Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field.
Protect C.J. Stroud: Quick throws will limit the exposure of Houston’s offensive line, which has struggled at times in pass protection, particularly against blitz-heavy teams.
Pick Up the Blitz
Kansas City’s defense thrives on applying pressure, particularly through creative and aggressive blitz schemes. This season, the Chiefs blitzed on 35.6% of opposing dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and were especially effective when rushing defensive backs and off-ball defenders.
Why the Blitz Matters
Pressure Creates Disruption: The Chiefs generated a pressure rate of 44.4% on plays where they blitzed, ranking in the top 10 in the NFL. When they didn’t blitz, their pressure rate dropped to 26.4% (third-lowest in the league), highlighting their reliance on blitzes to impact the quarterback.
DB Blitzes: Defensive backs accounted for 18.2% of their blitzes, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, showing Kansas City’s preference for bringing pressure from unexpected angles, particularly through nickel corners and safeties.
Off-Ball Blitzing: Kansas City rushed off-ball defenders on 26.7% of opposing dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Arrowhead Amplifies the Challenge: The playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium will only heighten the difficulty for Houston’s offense. Crowd noise will make communication across the offensive line challenging, and it’s imperative that the Texans’ linemen, backs, and tight ends are on the same page to avoid free rushers.
Silent Count: The Texans must execute a flawless silent count, as failure to do so will lead to communication breakdowns. Stroud and the offensive line need to align quickly and identify blitzers before the snap.
Historical Struggles in Pass Protection: The Texans have struggled with blitz recognition and pickup a majority of this season. While recent improvements to the offensive line have helped, blitz-heavy teams have consistently challenged Houston’s protections.
Quick Pressure: Houston allowed the sixth-quickest average time to pressure (2.58 seconds) this season and gave up a quick pressure rate of 18.1%, third-highest in the league.
Stroud Under Pressure: C.J. Stroud has thrown nine of his 12 interceptions on plays where he held the ball for over 2.5 seconds, further emphasizing the need for quick decisions against the blitz.
How to Counter Kansas City’s Blitz
Quick Passes Neutralize the Rush: The Texans can deploy a short passing game to mitigate Kansas City’s blitz effectiveness as laid out in my first key.
Running Backs in Pass Protection and as Outlets: Joe Mixon and Dare Ogunbowale must play a dual role in blitz pickup and as safety valves in the passing game. Effective blocking by backs can buy Stroud additional time, while quick dump-offs can turn aggressive rushes into positive yardage.
Improved Offensive Line Communication: The Texans’ offensive line, featuring Tytus Howard at left guard and Juice Scruggs at right guard, has shown improvement in recent weeks. However, they must take another step forward to handle Kansas City’s exotic blitz packages.
Tytus Howard at Guard: Since moving to left guard, Howard has allowed just 0.5 sacks and a 4.3% pressure rate, which would rank third among qualified guards. His improved play will be vital in handling interior blitzes.
Juice Scruggs’ Role: Filling in for Shaq Mason, Scruggs has shown promise but will face his toughest test yet in identifying and passing off stunts and delayed blitzes and the challenge of Chris Jones.
Anticipating Key Blitzers: Kansas City’s defense thrives on disguise, often blitzing from unexpected positions. Identifying players like Chamarri Conner, who frequently blitzes from the nickel, will be critical. Stroud must remain alert to pre-snap alignments and adjust protections accordingly.
George Karlaftis’ Recent Surge: On the edge, George Karlaftis has been a force, generating 20 pressures over the last four games with a quick get-off time of 0.78 seconds.
Chris Jones’ Versatility: Chris Jones remains one of the league’s most versatile and dominant defensive linemen. This season, Jones generated 38 pressures on 358 pass rushes as a defensive tackle (10.6% pressure rate) and 23 pressures on 149 pass rushes as an edge rusher (15.4% pressure rate). He is one of only two players since 2018 to record at least 20 pressures from both alignments in a single season. Jones’ adaptability, including his 23 pressures from the edge (the fourth-most by a defensive tackle since 2018), makes him a constant threat.
In the December matchup, Tytus Howard, playing at left guard, held Jones largely in check. However, Jones’ ability to shift between inside and outside alignments will demand constant awareness and disciplined protection schemes from Houston’s offensive line.
The offensive tackles must handle Karlaftis & Jones without requiring extra help when able to free up resources for blitz pickup.
Why Picking Up the Blitz is Critical
Failing to counter Kansas City’s blitz effectively will not only disrupt Stroud but also limit Houston’s ability to establish rhythm offensively. A strong blitz response, however, can flip the script and punish Kansas City for its aggression:
Explosive Opportunities: Beating the blitz often leads to big plays, as vacated areas in coverage can be exploited.
Building Confidence: If the Texans pick up the blitz early in the game, it will reduce the Chiefs’ willingness to blitz as aggressively, allowing the offense to settle into a rhythm.
By focusing on quick passes, effective communication, and utilizing backs and tight ends in pass protection, the Texans can not only neutralize Kansas City’s blitz but also turn it into a weakness to exploit. This will be a defining factor in Houston’s ability to sustain drives and put points on the board in a hostile environment.
C.J. Stroud Using His Legs
C.J. Stroud’s mobility has been an underrated element of his game, but it can be a critical factor in the playoffs, where every yard counts and defenses tighten their schemes. While Stroud is not known as a dual-threat quarterback, his athleticism and ability to extend plays with his legs can shift momentum and sustain drives in high-pressure situations.
Why It’s Important
Patrick Mahomes has set the standard for how quarterbacks can weaponize their legs in the postseason. Over the last six postseasons, Mahomes has scrambled for 517 yards at an average of 9.1 yards per scramble, converting 32 first downs and scoring 4 touchdowns. His decisiveness when running has turned broken plays into game-changing moments, and Stroud can take a similar approach to exploit Kansas City’s aggressive pass rush.
The Key: Decisiveness
For Stroud, the focus must be on decisiveness. Too often, young quarterbacks hesitate, either holding the ball too long or scrambling too late. In the playoffs, hesitation can lead to sacks, incompletions, or turnovers. Stroud must identify opportunities to run quickly and act immediately, whether it’s stepping up through the middle of the pocket or escaping to the edge when the defense overcommits.
In the Texans’ Wild Card win against the Chargers, Stroud’s scrambles were pivotal. He extended drives and flipped momentum by taking what the defense gave him, rather than forcing throws under duress. His timely runs not only picked up critical yardage but also kept the offense ahead of the chains, putting Houston in manageable down-and-distance situations.
Strategic Advantages
Using his legs effectively can open up multiple layers of opportunity for the Texans’ offense:
Neutralizing the Pass Rush: Kansas City generates pressure at a high rate, particularly when blitzing. Stroud’s ability to escape the pocket and punish defenders for overcommitting can force the Chiefs’ defense to hesitate, slowing their rush and creating more time for Houston’s passing game.
Forcing Coverage Adjustments: When a quarterback proves he’s willing to run, defenders must account for that threat. Linebackers hesitate to drop into coverage, and defensive backs stay in soft zones longer, creating openings for receivers like Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz to find soft spots in coverage.
Critical Situations: Stroud’s legs can be a game-changer in high-leverage moments like third-and-medium, red zone plays, or end-of-half drives. By turning potential sacks into positive gains, he can extend drives and keep Houston’s offense on the field longer, limiting Mahomes’ opportunities.
Learning From the Best
Mahomes’ success as a runner isn’t just about athleticism; it’s about understanding the situation and taking advantage of what the defense gives. He’s not the fastest quarterback but excels because of his decisiveness and ability to protect himself by sliding or getting out of bounds before contact. Stroud, who has shown similar flashes in both college and the NFL, can adopt this approach to make his running game efficient and sustainable.
Execution and Impact
To maximize his impact as a runner, Stroud must:
Read the Defense Quickly: Recognize when lanes open up in the middle of the field, particularly in blitz-heavy situations where defenders vacate their assignments.
Be Situationally Aware: Use his legs strategically, especially in critical moments where extending the drive or gaining a few extra yards can change the game’s outcome.
Protect Himself: Avoid unnecessary hits by sliding or stepping out of bounds, ensuring he remains healthy and available for the entirety of the game.
In summary, Stroud’s ability to use his legs can serve as an X-factor against Kansas City. By extending plays, creating opportunities for his teammates, and capitalizing on the Chiefs’ aggressiveness, he can add another dimension to Houston’s offense. This aspect of his game, if utilized effectively, could be the difference between a stalled drive and a game-winning score.
Defensive Keys
Discipline Against Screens, Motion, and Pick Plays
The Chiefs’ offense is built on deception and quick execution, designed to create mismatches and capitalize on defensive mistakes. From pre-snap motion to well-timed screens and pick plays, Kansas City thrives on putting defenders in conflict and forcing them to make split-second decisions. For the Texans, maintaining discipline in alignment, communication, and tackling will be vital to neutralizing these strategies.
Why It Matters
Kansas City’s offense leads if very affective at yards after the catch, or YAC. This success is largely a result of their ability to scheme players into open space with pre-snap motion and quick screens. The Chiefs use these plays not only to pick up easy yardage but also to slow down aggressive defenses by forcing them to respect the short game. If Houston doesn’t stay disciplined, these seemingly innocuous plays can quickly turn into game-breaking gains.
The Challenge of Screens
Screens are a staple of the Chiefs’ playbook, designed to exploit overly aggressive defenses. Whether targeting running backs, wide receivers, or tight ends, Kansas City’s screen game relies on precise timing and blocking to give their playmakers room to operate.
The Texans’ defensive line must remain alert to the telltale signs of a screen play, such as offensive linemen releasing downfield or a running back subtly positioning himself as a receiving threat. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter in particular, need to strike a balance between rushing Mahomes and keeping their eyes on the backfield to detect potential screens.
Key Stats: The Chiefs accumulated the third-most YAC in the NFL this season and have averaged at least 6 yards after the catch per reception in all seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. Conversely, the Texans allowed the most YAC per reception (6.4) this season, making tackling a critical focus.
Pre-Snap Motion and Misdirection
Kansas City uses pre-snap motion to force defenses into mismatches and to simplify Mahomes’ reads. The constant movement can create confusion, especially if defenders aren’t disciplined in their assignments. For example, motion often reveals whether the defense is in man or zone coverage, allowing Mahomes to exploit the scheme.
To combat this, the Texans must maintain sharp communication across all levels of the defense. Players like Azeez Al-Shaair will be crucial in ensuring everyone is aligned correctly and ready to adjust quickly. Staying disciplined in passing off assignments and avoiding hesitation when motion shifts occur will help limit the effectiveness of Kansas City’s misdirection.
The Danger of Pick Plays
Pick plays are another tactic the Chiefs deploy, particularly in third-down or red-zone situations. By forcing defenders to navigate through traffic, these plays are designed to create separation for receivers. If defenders don’t anticipate the pick and communicate effectively, it often leads to wide-open targets for Mahomes.
Solution: Zone coverage can help mitigate the impact of pick plays, as defenders are responsible for areas rather than trailing receivers through traffic. However, even in man coverage, defenders must be prepared to anticipate and navigate these schemes without losing leverage.
Tackling Fundamentals
Gang tackling will be critical in limiting Kansas City’s success after the catch. Too often this season, Houston’s defenders have allowed additional yardage by failing to wrap up on the first attempt or by taking poor angles to the ball carrier.
Key Adjustment: Houston must emphasize swarm tackling, ensuring multiple defenders are converging on the ball. This not only limits YAC but also reduces the chances of a single missed tackle leading to a big play.
Player Focus: Linebackers like Christian Harris and Henry To'oTo'o and safeties like Eric Murray will need to play downhill and with aggression, closing quickly on screens and short routes to prevent the Chiefs’ playmakers from gaining momentum.
Execution
To effectively counter Kansas City’s misdirection-heavy offense, the Texans must:
Stay Disciplined: Recognize screen setups and avoid over-pursuing Mahomes, keeping eyes in the backfield without losing sight of the overall play.
Communicate Effectively: Adjust to pre-snap motion without hesitation, ensuring everyone knows their assignment to avoid coverage breakdowns.
Tackle Aggressively: Use sound fundamentals to wrap up ball carriers immediately, minimizing opportunities for YAC.
Mix Coverages: Utilize a mix of zone and man looks to disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm and make it harder for Kansas City to exploit matchups.
Why It’s Crucial
Kansas City’s reliance on screens, motion, and pick plays is not just a way to create yardage—it’s a way to dictate the tempo of the game and wear down opposing defenses. If the Texans can disrupt this rhythm by staying disciplined and tackling effectively, they can force the Chiefs into a more predictable and less efficient offense. In a game of this magnitude, every stop matters, and winning these small battles could lead to the ultimate prize: advancing in the playoffs.
Contain Patrick Mahomes’ Scrambling
Patrick Mahomes’ ability to extend plays and scramble for yardage is one of the defining traits of his game and a critical reason for his postseason success. Over the past six playoffs, Mahomes has rushed for 517 yards on scrambles, averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per attempt. These runs often come at crucial moments, extending drives or flipping momentum in Kansas City’s favor. For the Texans, limiting this aspect of Mahomes’ game will be pivotal to their defensive strategy.
The Challenge
Mahomes doesn’t rely on designed runs; instead, his scrambles are a response to defensive breakdowns or well-timed exploitation of rushing lanes. What makes him so dangerous is his ability to recognize opportunities quickly and decisively, often turning what appears to be a broken play into a critical first down or touchdown.
High-Leverage Impact: Mahomes has converted 32 first downs and scored 4 touchdowns on scrambles over the past six postseasons. These moments are game-changing, often demoralizing defenses that thought they had him contained.
Additionally, Mahomes’ scrambling ability is enhanced by his vision and awareness, allowing him to maximize yardage while avoiding unnecessary hits. His success isn’t dependent on elite speed but on reading the field and making quick decisions—traits that make him particularly difficult to defend.
How Houston Can Limit the Damage
Maintain Lane Integrity: The Texans’ pass rush must work cohesively to avoid creating gaps or rushing lanes for Mahomes to exploit. Over-pursuing or losing discipline in rush lanes will give Mahomes the opportunity to step up in the pocket or escape to the outside. Defensive ends like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter must be especially mindful of their contain responsibilities, ensuring they funnel Mahomes toward the interior rather than allowing him to escape to the edges.
Key Matchup: Houston’s interior defensive line, led by Foley Fatukasi, Tim Settle Jr., and Denico Autry, must collapse the pocket without overcommitting, closing off the B and A gaps that Mahomes often exploits when stepping up.
Deploy a Spy: Utilizing a linebacker as a spy can help mitigate Mahomes’ scrambling. Christian Harris, with his speed and athleticism, is an ideal candidate for this role. By shadowing Mahomes, Harris can react quickly to any attempt to escape the pocket, forcing Mahomes to either throw under pressure or attempt a contested run.
Strategic Use of the Spy: While deploying a spy can be effective, it comes at the cost of removing a defender from coverage or run support. The Texans must use this tactic strategically, such as in third-and-long situations or when Mahomes shows a pattern of exploiting open lanes.
Discipline in Coverage: One of Mahomes’ greatest strengths is his ability to keep plays alive, giving his receivers time to adjust and find openings in coverage. Houston’s secondary must remain disciplined and avoid the temptation to abandon their assignments when Mahomes extends a play.
Zone Coverage Benefits: Zone schemes can help mitigate the chaos of extended plays by keeping defenders in their areas rather than requiring them to chase receivers across the field. This also allows defenders to keep their eyes on Mahomes, making it easier to react if he decides to scramble.
Extended Coverage: Houston’s defensive backs must be prepared to cover longer than usual, as Mahomes’ play-extending ability often requires defenders to maintain coverage well beyond the typical 3-4 seconds of a standard play. Communication and stamina will be critical, especially in a game where Mahomes’ escapability will test the secondary’s focus and endurance.
Execution and Adaptation
The Texans’ approach to containing Mahomes must also adapt throughout the game. While a spy can be effective, Mahomes may adjust by drawing the spy out of position with pump fakes or motion. To counter this, Houston can mix up its strategies, alternating between deploying a spy, playing disciplined man coverage with a linebacker shadowing Mahomes, and using zone schemes to contain the scramble threat.
Additionally, Houston must recognize the situations where Mahomes is most likely to scramble, such as third downs or broken play scenarios. These are moments where defenders may naturally relax, thinking the play is over, only for Mahomes to exploit their hesitation. DeMeco Ryans will need to emphasize that the defensive clock cannot stop ticking against Mahomes until the whistle blows.
Why It’s Crucial
Allowing Mahomes to scramble doesn’t just lead to yardage—it demoralizes defenses and energizes Kansas City’s offense. Forcing Mahomes to stay in the pocket, make quick decisions, and avoid easy running lanes is key to disrupting his rhythm. While it’s nearly impossible to eliminate Mahomes’ scrambling entirely, limiting its impact can force the Chiefs into more predictable situations, increasing the likelihood of a defensive stop.
By combining disciplined rush lanes, strategic spying, and extended coverage discipline, the Texans can contain one of Mahomes’ most dangerous weapons and give themselves a chance to win this playoff battle.
Stop the Run
The Chiefs’ rushing attack is not built on explosiveness but on efficiency and the ability to set up their passing game. While Isiah Pacheco is a tough, physical runner, Kansas City relies on its rushing game to keep defenses honest and create manageable down-and-distance situations. For the Texans, stopping the run is critical to forcing the Chiefs into a one-dimensional offense and allowing Houston’s pass rush to focus on disrupting Patrick Mahomes.
Houston’s Defensive Strength Against the Run
The Texans’ defense has been particularly effective against runs inside the tackles this season, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. This ranks among the best in the league, showcasing Houston’s ability to clog interior rushing lanes and make opponents work for every yard.
Additionally, Houston leads the NFL in negative rushing yards over expected, a testament to their disciplined gap control and ability to win at the line of scrimmage.
Key Stat: The Texans allowed only 0.9 yards before contact per carry on inside runs, the eighth-lowest in the league, while posting an 18.9% run stuff rate, seventh-highest in the NFL.
The combination of strong interior play and sound tackling has made Houston a formidable opponent for teams looking to establish the run between the tackles.
The Role of Foley Fatukasi
The return of Foley Fatukasi bolsters Houston’s interior defensive line significantly. Fatukasi excels as a run-stuffer, using his strength and technique to occupy blockers and close rushing lanes. His ability to consistently command double teams frees up linebackers to flow to the ball and make plays near the line of scrimmage.
Impact Against the Chargers: Fatukasi’s presence was immediately felt in the Wild Card win against the Chargers, where his disruption in the trenches helped limit J.K. Dobbins and get key stops in short yardage situations. Against Kansas City, his role will be equally vital in neutralizing Isiah Pacheco and limiting inside runs.
Azeez Al-Shaair’s Leadership
Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair’s return adds another critical piece to Houston’s run defense. Al-Shaair is not only the team’s defensive captain and green-dot wearer, but he also brings a high football IQ and elite play recognition to the field. His ability to diagnose plays quickly and position himself effectively will be essential in shutting down rushing lanes and preventing the Chiefs from gaining traction on the ground.
Play Recognition and Leadership: Al-Shaair’s presence ensures the Texans’ defense remains aligned and disciplined, particularly against Kansas City’s complex offensive schemes. His leadership is also invaluable in high-pressure situations, where clear communication and quick adjustments can mean the difference between a stop and a big gain.
Why Stopping the Run Matters
While Kansas City’s rushing attack is not explosive, it is consistent enough to create balance in their offense. Pacheco is a physical runner who fights through contact and generates tough yards, often setting up manageable third-down situations.
Chiefs’ Rushing Limitations: Kansas City rushed for 10+ yards on just 5.4% of designed runs this season, the lowest rate in the NFL. However, their ability to stay ahead of the chains with 3-to-5-yard gains can frustrate defenses and open up the play-action game.
By shutting down the run, the Texans can force Kansas City into obvious passing situations, allowing their elite pass rushers—Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter—to pin their ears back and go after Mahomes. A one-dimensional Chiefs offense is far easier to defend, as it eliminates the threat of play-action and makes Kansas City more predictable.
Execution Plan
To neutralize Kansas City’s rushing attack, the Texans must:
Win the Line of Scrimmage: Fatukasi, Tim Settle Jr., Mario Edwards Jr. and company must control the interior and prevent the Chiefs’ offensive line from creating rushing lanes.
Stay Disciplined in Gap Assignments: Linebackers like Al-Shaair must remain patient and fill their gaps effectively, preventing cutbacks or big plays.
Wrap Up on First Contact: Pacheco is known for his physicality and ability to fight through tackles. Sound tackling will be crucial to limiting his yards after contact.
Control Early Downs: Forcing the Chiefs into second-and-long or third-and-long situations will disrupt their offensive rhythm and put Mahomes under pressure.
The Importance of Physicality
Playoff football is often decided in the trenches, and Houston’s ability to impose their will against Kansas City’s rushing attack can set the tone for the entire game. By dominating the line of scrimmage, the Texans can control the tempo and make life difficult for the Chiefs’ offense.
Stopping the run isn’t just about limiting yardage—it’s about dictating the terms of the game and forcing Kansas City into uncomfortable situations. With the return of Fatukasi and Al-Shaair, Houston is well-positioned to accomplish this and take a critical step toward victory.
Prediction
This game will be a chess match between Andy Reid and DeMeco Ryans, with field position, special teams, and turnovers likely determining the outcome.
Prediction: Texans 20, Chiefs 17.
Houston’s defense will rise to the occasion, generating critical turnovers and pressure on Mahomes to secure a hard-fought victory. For Texans fans, this is another opportunity to embrace the underdog role and prove their team belongs among the NFL’s elite.
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