A Season of Challenges, Yet the Goal Remains in Reach
This Texans season has not gone exactly as fans had hoped or expected. Coming off a breakout 2023 campaign that saw C.J. Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year, the offseason additions of Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, and Joe Mixon fueled expectations for an even bigger step forward. Many analysts and fans believed this team could contend for the AFC’s top seed, but instead, Houston's path has been a grind.
Unlike last season, where the offense carried the team while the defense found its way, the script flipped in 2024. Houston’s defense, led by DeMeco Ryans, was dominant for much of the season. But the offense—despite a fully healthy, highly paid offensive line—struggled due to a mix of poor offensive line play, defensive adjustments to Bobby Slowik’s scheme, and injuries to key weapons like Diggs, Nico Collins, and Joe Mixon. Tank Dell's season-ending injury also robbed Stroud of a dynamic playmaker.
Yet, despite all the adversity, the Texans are still in position to achieve their ultimate goal: a deep playoff run and a chance to make this season a massive success.
National Media Disrespects the Texans – Are the Chargers Really the Favorite?
The Texans are set to face the Los Angeles Chargers, a team that in many ways mirrors them. However, the national media overwhelmingly views this as a Chargers victory waiting to happen. The betting line opened with the Chargers favored by three points, suggesting that on a neutral field, the oddsmakers would favor them by 4.5-5 points, and if the game were in Los Angeles, they'd be favored by 6-7.
A major argument from Chargers backers is that the Texans played an easy schedule and went 1-5 against winning teams. But those numbers are misleading. Houston was inches away from beating both the Packers and Lions, which would have changed that record to 3-3. Meanwhile, the Chargers' 3-5 record against winning teams includes two victories over the Broncos—who, while improved, are not an elite team—and a Bengals team that barely finished above .500 and missed the playoffs.
Some Chargers supporters might argue that they played the Chiefs and Ravens close, but their conservative, clock-draining, game-shortening style under Jim Harbaugh has kept most of their games close regardless of opponent.
Key Storylines and Connections
The Harbaugh-Stroud Rivalry
This game presents an interesting dynamic between Jim Harbaugh and C.J. Stroud. Harbaugh recruited Stroud out of high school to play at Michigan, but Stroud chose Ohio State, where he faced Harbaugh's Wolverines twice (2021, 2022)—losing both matchups.
Additionally, Stroud is 0-3 in his career against Jim’s older brother, John Harbaugh, and the Baltimore Ravens. This game represents an opportunity for Stroud to finally defeat a Harbaugh.
Nico Collins vs. His College Coach
Texans wide receiver Nico Collins played under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, making this a personal matchup for him as well.
Chargers QB Coach Has Texans Ties
Chargers quarterbacks coach Shane Day was on the Texans' staff in 2023 as a senior offensive assistant. While not a major storyline, any familiarity with Stroud and Slowik’s tendencies could be a minor factor.
Ladd McConkey vs. Kamari Lassiter
This game also features a fascinating rookie-on-rookie matchup. Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter and Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey were teammates at Georgia, and there’s a good chance they will go head-to-head in critical moments.
Texans' Rest Advantage
Houston played its starters for less than a quarter in Week 18 against the Titans, while the Chargers played their starters deep into the game against the Raiders in order to secure this matchup instead of facing the Ravens. That extra rest for the Texans could be an advantage.
Texans' Offensive Keys to Victory
1. Red Zone Execution is Paramount
The Chargers boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL (fewest points allowed per game), and a huge reason why is their ability to get stops on third downs and in the red zone.
This is especially important against a Jim Harbaugh-coached team because of his game-management style—Harbaugh prioritizes shortening the game, controlling time of possession, and limiting total drives. This means that red zone opportunities will be limited, and failing to convert touchdowns instead of field goals could be the difference in the game.
How Good Are the Chargers in the Red Zone?
They rank number 1 in red zone defense, allowing TDs on just 45% of opponent trips inside the 20.
Opponents score just 17.7 points per game against them, the lowest mark in the NFL.
Their defense tightens significantly in the red zone, forcing teams into difficult third-down passing situations.
How the Texans’ Red Zone Offense Matches Up
The Texans' red zone offense has been inconsistent, ranking 26th in touchdown percentage (49.12%).
Houston has left points on the board multiple times this season, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns in key moments.
One reason Houston’s red zone execution has been hit or miss is because their offensive line has struggled in short-yardage run blocking. The Texans do not have an elite power-running game, which makes it difficult to simply line up and punch the ball in from inside the 5-yard line.
However, with the new-look offensive line and their dominant Week 18 rushing performance (281 yards vs. Titans), Houston may be able to use the run game more effectively in the red zone this week.
How the Texans Can Improve in the Red Zone vs. the Chargers
Use Motion to Identify and Attack Coverages – The Chargers play a lot of zone coverage (4th-highest rate in the NFL, including the 2nd-highest Cover 4 usage at 24%). Bobby Slowik can use pre-snap motion to help Stroud identify coverage and find weak spots in the Chargers' red zone defense.
Target Nico Collins in Isolated Matchups – The Chargers' secondary often gives space in the red zone, and Nico Collins' size and physicality make him a perfect red-zone target on back-shoulder throws or fades or slants.
Utilize Tight Ends More – The Texans haven't heavily utilized their tight ends in the passing game this season, but Dalton Schultz is a proven red-zone weapon who could be key in this game.
Avoid Negative Plays and Pre-Snap Penalties – The Texans’ biggest red-zone killer this season has been self-inflicted mistakes—whether it’s sacks, penalties, or negative runs that put them behind the chains. Against a defense that is elite in red-zone stops, Houston cannot afford to give away free yards or move backward inside the 20.
2. Establish the Run vs. Chargers' "Bend But Don’t Break" Defense
A strong rushing attack can control the clock, keep the Chargers' offense off the field, and alleviate pressure on quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Texans' Rushing Offense:
Total Rushing Yards: 1,909 yards (ranking 15th in the NFL).
Yards Per Carry: 4.4 (tied for 13th).
Rushing Touchdowns: 15 (tied for 15th).
Running back Joe Mixon has been a key contributor, despite challenges with run blocking. He was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 51.8% of his rushes this season, the highest rate of his career. Despite limited room to operate, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and recorded an explosive run rate of 11.4%, both of which are his highest marks since his rookie season (2018).
Chargers' Run Defense:
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 117.5 yards (14th in the league).
Yards Per Carry Allowed: 4.7 (tied for 6th most).
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed: 7 (tied for 1st for least amount allowed in the league).
The Chargers' defense often employs light box defenses, utilizing them on 74.9% of plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. When doing so, they allowed 4.7 yards per carry (6th-fewest) and were one of only two teams (along with the Patriots) not to allow a single rushing touchdown.
Strategic Considerations:
Offensive Line Configuration: The Texans are set to field their newest offensive line configuration for just the second time this season, after a successful debut against the Tennessee Titans. This lineup includes Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, Tytus Howard at left guard, Jarrett Patterson at center, Juice Scruggs at right guard, and rookie Blake Fisher at right tackle. In that game, the Texans rushed for 281 yards, their highest total all season.
Exploiting Defensive Schemes: The Chargers' tendency to use two-high safety looks and light boxes presents an opportunity for the Texans to establish the run. By effectively running the ball, Houston can force the Chargers to commit more defenders to the box, potentially opening up passing lanes for Stroud.
Play-Action Passing: A successful running game can set up play-action opportunities, which may be particularly effective against the Chargers' zone coverages. This could help Stroud, who has recorded the 4th-lowest dropback success rate against zone coverage (40.8%) this season, throwing 10 of his 12 interceptions against zone.
3. Protect Stroud from Blitzes, Simulated Pressures, and Stunts
Protecting quarterback C.J. Stroud is paramount for the Texans as they prepare to face the Los Angeles Chargers in the upcoming playoff game. The Chargers' defense, led by versatile safety Derwin James Jr., presents significant challenges that Houston's offensive line, tight ends and runnibg backs must address to ensure offensive success.
Texans' Pass Protection Challenges:
Quick Pressures Allowed: Houston has allowed the sixth-quickest time to pressure this season, averaging 2.58 seconds. They've surrendered quick pressure on 18.1% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league.
Stroud's Performance Under Pressure: When Stroud holds the ball for over 2.5 seconds, he has thrown nine of his 12 interceptions. This could be from both tight coverage or being forced to flee the pocket.
Derwin James Jr.'s Impact:
Versatility and Pressure: James is a dynamic defender, capable of playing multiple positions and excelling as a blitzer. He recorded 21 pressures this season, tied for the most among all defensive backs, and rushed the passer 69 times, the highest mark of his career.
Recent Performance: James was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month, highlighting his recent impact on the field.
Strategic Considerations for the Texans:
Offensive Line Stability: The Texans have shuffled their offensive line frequently this season, using 11 different combinations for at least 10 snaps, tied for the 10th-most in the league. This lack of continuity has contributed to protection issues. However, the recent configuration showed promise against the Titans, allowing only one sack.
Identifying Defensive Alignments: Pre-snap motion and varied formations can help Stroud identify when James is positioned to blitz, allowing for adjustments in protection schemes or quick pass options to counteract the pressure. It will be key to get in and out of the huddle in a quick manner to allow time presnap to read the defense.
Quick Passing Game: A quick passing strategy will help the Texans neutralize the Chargers' pass rush. Los Angeles plays off-coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (81.4%), with a league-high 7.3-yard cushion. This gives C.J. Stroud opportunities to attack with timing-based routes before pressure arrives. Nico Collins thrives against off-coverage, averaging 11.6 yards per target (4th-most among receivers with 25+ such targets), making him a key weapon on screens, hitches, and slants.
Texans' Defensive Keys to Victory
1. Contain Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey has had an outstanding rookie season and is by far the piece that makes this Chargers offense click. He is their most reliable pass-catcher, especially in the intermediate passing game, where Justin Herbert has thrived this season.
From the Slot: 801 receiving yards (2nd-most among WRs).
Against Zone: 10.7 YPT (4th-most in NFL).
Intermediate Routes (10-19 yards): 14.2 YPT (league-high).
With both Joshua Palmer ruled out and Quentin Johnston questionable, we may not see McConkey in the slot as much as usual. The Chargers may have to run more two-wide receiver sets (12, 21 personnel), meaning McConkey will likely line up outside rather than in the slot.
If this trend does happen, than it actually plays in Houston’s favor, as it allows them to stay in a 4-3 base defense, which is ideal given the Texans' depleted nickel position.
How Houston Can Cover McConkey
The Texans have two primary options for covering McConkey:
Derek Stingley Jr. shadows him when he's outside and at times when he's inside – This keeps the Texans’ top corner on the Chargers' best receiver. Stingley has been elite in coverage, allowing the lowest yards per target (4.9 YPA) among all outside CBs with at least 50 targets.
Kamari Lassiter plays outside in base sets, moves inside to the nickel in passing situations – This would mean Jeff Okudah plays outside opposite Stingley in nickel formations in which Stingley doesn't shadow to the slot.
While Christian Harris has the athleticism to cover McConkey in short zones if he lines up inside against the Texans’ base 4-3, that’s still a mismatch Houston would like to avoid.
Preferred Approach: Mix of Stingley and Lassiter on McConkey
Given Stingley’s ability to erase receivers and Lassiter’s physicality, the best strategy would be to rotate their matchups on McConkey based on personnel groupings. If the Chargers do move McConkey inside, Lassiter shifting to the nickel would be the best solution, minimizing mismatches with linebackers like Christian Harris or Henry To’oto’o in coverage. DeMeco can still utilize Stingley on McConkey in the slot in critical downs as well and keep Lassiter on the outside along with Okudah.
The Texans' defense has allowed:
Just 6.9 YPA to slot receivers (5th-fewest in the NFL).
A -7.0% completion percentage over expected on slot targets (lowest in the league).
Only 8.9 YPA on intermediate throws (8th-fewest), with a -6.2% CPOE (2nd-lowest).
With McConkey being the clear top option, shutting him down forces Herbert to rely on less proven weapons like Quentin Johnston (if healthy) or backup tight ends, making it much easier for Houston to dictate the game defensively.
2. Stop the Run
The Chargers' offensive identity under Jim Harbaugh is built around the run game, using it to control the clock, set up play-action, and keep Justin Herbert in favorable situations. If the Texans can shut down the run early, they can force Herbert into third-and-long situations, allowing Houston’s dominant pass rush to take over.
Houston’s front seven is fully healthy for the first time all season, with key players like Azeez Al-Shaair returning from suspension and Christian Harris and Foley Fatukasi back from injury. This will be critical in stifling the Chargers’ rushing attack, which relies on power formations, heavy personnel, and early-down success to dictate the game.
Chargers’ Run-Heavy Scheme and Success Rate
Jim Harbaugh has installed a physical, run-heavy offense that thrives on early-down efficiency and keeping the defense off balance. The Chargers use heavy personnel (multiple TEs or RBs) at one of the highest rates in the NFL:
22 personnel (2 TEs, 2 RBs) usage: 11.5% of plays (2nd-highest in the NFL).
Number of plays with at least seven players weighing 285+ lbs: 143 plays this season (most in the NFL).
Rushing yards per game: 110.7 YPG (17th in the NFL).
Yards per carry: 4.1 YPC (21st in the NFL).
Texans’ Run Defense Has the Advantage
Houston’s run defense has been one of the most consistent units in the league, ranking:
11th in rushing yards allowed per game (114.0).
Tied for 10th in yards per carry allowed (4.3).
5h-fewest rushing TDs allowed (11).
How the Texans Can Stop the Chargers’ Rushing Offense
Win at the Line of Scrimmage – The Chargers' offensive line has been solid in pass protection but has struggled against physical defensive fronts in the run game. Houston’s defensive tackles—Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry—must dominate the interior and clog running lanes to prevent any push at the line of scrimmage.
Maintain Gap Discipline – Harbaugh’s power-run scheme relies on misdirection and pulling linemen to create gaps in the defense. The Texans’ defensive linemen must stay disciplined and not over-pursue (something we saw against Baltimore), forcing the Chargers' backs into clogged rushing lanes.
Limit Yards After Contact – The Chargers rely on their backs falling forward and grinding out extra yards to stay ahead of the chains. Houston must wrap up and tackle efficiently, swarming to the football to prevent extra yardage.
3. Pressure Justin Herbert
This key goes hand-in-hand with stopping the run. If the Texans can force the Chargers into third-and-long situations, they can dictate the game by putting pressure on Justin Herbert.
The Chargers' offensive line has been one of the most stable in the NFL, with their starting five playing 64.1% of snaps together (4th-most). They’ve also been playing well recently, allowing just a 21.4% pressure rate over their last three games (2nd-lowest in the NFL), which is significantly better than their season-long 33.5% pressure rate (16th in the league).
However, the Texans' defensive line is simply better.
Houston is the only team in the NFL with two edge rushers ranked in the top 10 in pressure rate (Danielle Hunter - 2nd, 19.1%; Will Anderson Jr. - 7th, 16.9%).
The Texans are one of only eight teams with two players recording 50+ pressures (Hunter - 90, Anderson - 58).
Hunter and Anderson combined for 23 sacks, ranking them 3rd among all edge duos.
On third down, the Texans have been elite when blitzing:
Blitz Rate: 40.1% (5th-highest).
Pressure Rate: 56.0% (5th-highest).
Sacks on Blitzes: 12 (2nd-most).
Opposing Completion % on Blitzes: 39.0% (lowest in NFL).
The combination of a dominant four-man rush and timely blitzing should create havoc for Herbert.
Final Prediction: Texans 27, Chargers 13
With the Texans' front seven finally healthy and DeMeco Ryans’ elite defensive game-planning, Houston should control this game. Stroud and the offense will capitalize on a soft Chargers secondary, and the Texans will advance.
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