The Houston Texans face a pivotal opportunity to bounce back from their devastating loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The stakes are high, as this game against the Baltimore Ravens offers the Texans not just a chance to secure a stronger position in the playoff race, but to prove they belong among the league's elite. A win here would solidify their status as a legitimate contender, boost confidence for a young roster, and put them in a prime spot for the AFC’s No. 3 seed.
This matchup carries additional weight because of the Texans’ recent history with the Ravens. Baltimore defeated Houston twice last year, both times at M&T Bank Stadium—once in Week 1 and again in the divisional round of the playoffs. The playoff loss was particularly painful, as the game was tied at halftime before the Ravens pulled away, exposing flaws the Texans are still working to address. The crowd noise and cold conditions in Baltimore contributed to Houston’s struggles, and those lessons will be critical as the Texans look to prove they’ve grown into a team capable of deep playoff runs.
Matchup Context
Almost a year later, the Texans get their rematch, this time at NRG Stadium, where they’ve been formidable. Houston boasts a 5-2 record at home, and their defense has been dominant in all but one game at NRG. The Ravens, meanwhile, face additional challenges heading into this matchup. Both teams are playing their third game in 11 days, but Baltimore must contend with travel on short rest after playing last Saturday, while the Texans remain home. The Texans experienced a similar grueling stretch earlier this season when they traveled to New York on short rest to face the Jets—a game that ended in a loss. The Ravens now face a similar challenge, but with the added fatigue of cross-country travel.
Key Injuries and Roster Updates
The Texans enter this game severely undermanned. Wide receiver Tank Dell suffered a season-ending knee injury last week against Kansas City, a brutal blow to an offense that relied heavily on his speed and explosiveness to stretch defenses. Safety Jimmie Ward, a key leader in the secondary, is also out for the season with a mid-foot sprain requiring surgery. The offensive line remains in flux, with Shaq Mason still sidelined and Kendrick Green continuing to fill in at right guard. Center Juice Scruggs and defensive lineman Foley Fatukasi also remain unavailable, further thinning the roster.
To compensate for Dell’s absence, the Texans claimed wide receiver Diontae Johnson off waivers. Johnson, who has played for the Steelers, Panthers, and Ravens, brings versatility and experience, but with limited time to integrate into the offense, his impact in this game may be minimal. Additionally, the Ravens claimed Steven Sims, a wide receiver and punt returner whom the Texans had just released. Both moves may add value in terms of familiarity with the other team’s systems, adding an interesting wrinkle to the game.
Baltimore is not without its own issues. Wide receiver Nelson Agholor and backup running back Justice Hill are both out with concussions, thinning the Ravens’ offensive depth.
Offensive Keys to the Game
Run Between the Tackles
The Texans’ ground game will need to adjust its approach against a stout Ravens run defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Baltimore has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry and -133 rushing yards over expected on runs outside the tackles this season, both league bests. Additionally, they’ve allowed only three touchdowns on such plays. Joe Mixon, who excels on outside runs (+129 RYOE, 5th most in the NFL), has struggled inside (-39 RYOE). To succeed, the Texans must commit to running between the tackles and challenging Baltimore’s interior defense, even if early results are minimal.
Feed Nico Collins
With Tank Dell sidelined, Nico Collins becomes the focal point of the passing attack. Collins and C.J. Stroud have been one of the league’s most productive duos on intermediate routes, completing 22 of 27 passes for 385 yards, 4 touchdowns, and +34.5 EPA, per Next Gen Stats. Baltimore’s defense has tightened its pass coverage recently, but targeting Collins, particularly over the middle, will be critical to keeping the offense moving. Collins’ ability to dominate in contested catch situations will be especially valuable in Dell’s absence.
Patience from C.J. Stroud
Stroud has struggled against split-safety looks this season, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt and throwing 8 interceptions in such situations—tied for the most in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense has improved significantly against deep passes since Week 11, allowing just 415 yards on passes over 10 air yards (5th fewest in the league). Stroud must avoid forcing deep shots and instead take what the defense gives him, focusing on check-downs and intermediate throws to sustain drives.
Defensive Keys to the Game
Stop the Run
Baltimore’s offense thrives on staying in manageable third-down situations, thanks to its strong ground game. By shutting down the run early, the Texans can force Lamar Jackson and the Ravens into obvious passing downs, limiting their play-action effectiveness. DeMeco Ryans has shown he can scheme to neutralize elite running games, as evidenced by the Texans’ success against Derrick Henry last season. Similar discipline will be required here to contain Baltimore’s rushing attack.
Contain Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability is always a challenge, but his scrambling runs have been particularly damaging to opponents. The Texans struggled to contain Patrick Mahomes’ scramble runs last week, and they’ll need to adjust quickly. Look for Ryans to employ Christian Harris as a spy on Jackson, as he did effectively in last year’s playoff matchup. Maintaining discipline in pass-rush lanes will be critical to limiting Jackson’s ability to extend plays.
Tackle Effectively
The Ravens lead the NFL in forcing missed tackles, with their skill players breaking tackles on 25.4% of their touches, per Next Gen Stats. The Texans, meanwhile, have the league’s third-highest missed tackle rate (15.2%). This disparity is a concern, particularly on screens and short passes designed to create yards after the catch. Sound tackling will be essential to minimizing explosive plays.
Prediction
This matchup will test both teams’ resilience after a grueling stretch of games. The Texans’ home-field advantage and ability to adapt under DeMeco Ryans could prove decisive. Expect a tightly contested game with turnovers and red-zone efficiency determining the outcome.
Final Score: Texans 24, Ravens 20
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