The Houston Texans (7-5) travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars (2-9) in a pivotal divisional matchup this Sunday. After a disappointing home loss to the Titans, Texans fans know that no game is guaranteed, regardless of the opponent's record. The Jaguars come off a bye with a rest advantage, while Houston faces the challenge of rebounding after consecutive offensive struggles.
This will be the second meeting of the season between the two teams. The Texans edged out the Jaguars in a 24-20 nail-biter at NRG Stadium in Week 4. While Houston fans might typically feel confident against a 2-9 Jaguars team, last week's loss to a 2-8 Titans squad is a sobering reminder that records mean little in divisional matchups.
Key Injuries Impacting Both Teams
Houston will be without several key contributors, most notably safety Jalen Pitre, who suffered a torn pectoral muscle last week. Pitre had been a cornerstone of DeMeco Ryans' defense, offering versatility and leadership in the nickel role. Jimmie Ward will step into Pitre's role and should match his versatility, but the Texans’ secondary will need to be disciplined with Eric Murray and rookie Calen Bullock rotating at high safety.
On offense, Houston is also missing backup wide receiver Xavier Hutchison, with Jared Wayne and Irv Smith Jr. elevated from the practice squad. Smith replaces tight end Teagan Quitoriano, who hit injured reserve.
For Jacksonville, the headline injury is quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is expected to play despite a shoulder injury. Reports indicate the injury has limited Lawrence in practice, making his performance something to watch closely.
Offensive Keys to the Game
1. Pass to Open the Run
The Texans have struggled offensively in recent weeks, but Sunday presents an excellent opportunity to get right. Jacksonville’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in both pass defense and pass rush. CJ Stroud and his talented receiving corps, including Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz, should focus on airing it out early to build confidence and loosen up the Jaguars' run defense.
NextGenStats Insight:
The Jaguars allow the second-fewest rushing yards over expected (-65) and the seventh-lowest success rate (34.0%) on designed runs outside the tackles.
Joe Mixon, however, has the fifth-most rushing yards over expected (+116) and leads the NFL in touchdowns on outside runs (9).
Establishing the pass early will set up Mixon for success later in the game, particularly if Houston can build an early lead.
2. Solidify Pass Protection
Pass protection remains a significant issue for the Texans, with CJ Stroud pressured in under 2.5 seconds at the third-highest rate in the league (20.6%). Houston’s offensive line has allowed the 30th-most pressure, while Jacksonville’s defensive line ranks 29th in pressure applied.
The key battle will be on the edges, where Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard face Josh Allen and Travon Walker, one of only two pass-rushing duos in the NFL with both players ranked in the top 15 in pressures. While the Texans' tackles are solid, the interior line must step up to give Stroud time to exploit Jacksonville’s porous secondary.
3. Second-Half Success
Houston has only scored one second-half offensive touchdown since Week 6, and that was off a short field aided by a failed 4th down conversion by the Dallas Cowboys late in the game. The lack of production has coincided with the team going 2-4 over that span. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has attributed the struggles to penalties, turnovers, and poor execution, while fans suspect lack of adjustments and bad play calling to be the culprit, but whatever the cause, turning those second-half woes around is critical for the Texans to find consistency.
Defensive Keys to the Game
1. Pressure Trevor Lawrence
Whether Lawrence is fully healthy remains to be seen, but the Texans need to test him early with consistent pressure. Houston ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate, while Jacksonville’s offensive line allows the sixth-lowest pressure rate.
NextGenStats Insight:
Danielle Hunter leads the NFL in pressures (78) and recorded two sacks in Week 12.
Will Anderson Jr. generated his second-highest career pressure rate last week (35.0%) after returning from injury.
If Lawrence is ineffective, backup Mac Jones could take over, giving Houston an even greater advantage.
2. Disciplined Safety Play
With Jalen Pitre out, the safeties must stay disciplined to avoid giving up big plays like those seen last week against Tennessee. Proper depth and alignment are crucial to limiting explosive plays, especially with Ward stepping into the nickel role and Bullock seeing extended action at safety.
3. Contain Brian Thomas Jr.
With injuries to Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. becomes Jacksonville’s primary threat. Houston’s defense must focus on limiting his impact and forcing Lawrence to look elsewhere.
Fast Start is Key
The Texans have dominated this series, winning six straight games in Jacksonville. Getting off to a fast start could demoralize a struggling Jaguars team. If Houston executes early, they could take the Jaguars out of the game entirely.
Prediction
This matchup feels like the perfect opportunity for Houston to get their season back on track. CJ Stroud and the offense should thrive against Jacksonville’s weak pass defense, while the Texans’ pass rush could overwhelm an injured Trevor Lawrence.
Prediction: Texans 38 Jaguars 17
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