Date: 10/20/24 Location:  Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI Kickoff Time: 12 PM CST Connections Between the Teams There are several interesting connections between the Texans and Packers, adding a layer of intrigue to this matchup: Bobby Slowik's Ties to Green Bay:  Texans' offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has a personal connection to the area, having spent part of his childhood in Green Bay while his father coached for the Packers. This adds a bit of a "homecoming" feel for Slowik. Nick Caserio and Matt LaFleur's History:  Texans general manager Nick Caserio and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur have crossed paths in the past. Caserio was a graduate assistant at Saginaw Valley State University while LaFleur played quarterback there, building a connection that goes back years. Matt LaFleur's Time in Houston:  Before becoming a head coach, LaFleur served as an offensive assistant with the Texans during the 2008-2009 seasons. He’s familiar with the organization, which adds another element to this coaching chess match. Stefon Diggs vs. Jaire Alexander:  Texans WR Stefon Diggs is no stranger to the Packers, having faced them multiple times as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. His head-to-head battles with cornerback Jaire Alexander have become must-watch matchups, characterized by Alexander's physical, in-your-face style. Diggs has downplayed the significance of the individual matchup , but the numbers speak for themselves: In 10 career games against Green Bay, Diggs has 52 catches for 764 yards and 9 touchdowns. When matched up against Alexander specifically, he has 27 catches for 419 yards and 6 touchdowns in their contests. Injury Report Houston Texans: LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee)  and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion protocol):  Both are unlikely to play, having missed practice all week. This puts added pressure on Neville Hewitt  and Jake Hansen , who are slated to fill in. Texans fans were hoping to get Christian Harris  back from a calf injury, though he has not yet been activated. S Jimmie Ward (groin), WR Robert Woods (foot), CB Kamari Lassiter (scapula):  All three are questionable. D’Angelo Ross , who filled in admirably last week at corner, is set to start again for Lassiter. The potential absence of Ward could leave a gap in the secondary, particularly in run support and covering tight ends. Green Bay Packers: The Packers have several players limited in practice but do not anticipate any key new absences. They will look to have their core contributors ready for Sunday’s game, although their overall health could impact the depth and rotations. Keys to the Game Defense: Stop the Run and Contain Josh Jacobs The Packers rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 167 yards per contest. Much of their success has been fueled by Josh Jacobs , who signed with Green Bay this offseason and has been a force in the backfield. Here’s a breakdown of his performance: Jacobs has amassed 565 yards on 119 touches , forcing 28 missed tackles , the sixth-most in the league. His resurgence comes after a difficult 2023, where he recorded -86 rushing yards over expected (RYOE). This season, he’s posted +58 RYOE , ranking 12th among running backs. Jacobs thrives on breaking through contact , with 366 rushing yards after contact —the third-highest in the NFL. The Texans' defense must focus on sound tackling and gang-tackling Jacobs to prevent big gains. The Texans will also need to reduce the effectiveness of the Packers' play-action game , which is heavily linked to their rushing success. Play Action and Jordan Love Jordan Love  has been efficient off play action, completing 20 of 34 passes for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns , with a 132.1 passer rating —second in the NFL. His play action success has generated +48.2 EPA  since he became the starter in 2023, ranking fifth in the league over that span. Opposing quarterbacks have exploited the Texans’ defense through play action this season, throwing for five touchdowns with a 126.4 passer rating  (third-highest in the NFL). To disrupt this trend, the Texans must limit Jacobs' effectiveness on early downs, forcing the Packers into more predictable passing situations. Pressure and Aggressive Coverage The Texans have a clear edge when it comes to pressuring the quarterback: Houston leads the league with a 43.1% pressure rate , limiting opposing quarterbacks to a league-low -67.9 passing EPA  when under pressure. Danielle Hunter  and Will Anderson Jr.  lead the way, with 32 and 28 pressures , respectively, making the Texans the only team with multiple players boasting at least 25 pressures this season. Jordan Love has struggled against pressure, completing 18 of 45 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions , while recording a -12.2% completion percentage over expected —the lowest in the league. The Texans should be aggressive at the catch point, challenging Love’s tight-window throws and contested-catch attempts, as his decision-making can be erratic under duress. Offense: Establish the Run and Exploit Single-High Looks 1. Improving the Run Game The Texans’ rushing attack showed improvement last week, with Joe Mixon  and Dameon Pierce  leading the way. Despite facing a Packers defense that has shown strength against the run on paper, this matchup could still tilt in Houston’s favor. Mixon’s return to the lineup has brought a noticeable change to the offense, as his presence has improved the balance and allowed for more effective play-action passing. 2. Taking Advantage of Single-High Coverages The Packers predominantly run Cover 1 (23%)  and Cover 3 (30%) , making them a defense that relies on single-high safety looks. C.J. Stroud  has thrived against man coverage throughout his career, and even without Nico Collins, the Texans have viable targets in Stefon Diggs  and Tank Dell  who can win against man-to-man. Stroud has faced a lot of Cover 2  this season, as teams have tried to limit big plays with a bend-but-don’t-break approach. While this strategy has been effective at containing points, it has not stopped the Texans from racking up yardage. However, it has forced Houston into more third-and-long situations due to penalties, sacks, and tackles for loss. Against the Packers' single-high schemes, look for Stroud to take more shots downfield and target Diggs and Dell in favorable matchups. The Texans' ability to exploit these coverages could be a game-changer, especially if the Packers stick to their usual defensive tendencies. Strategic Outlook The Texans have a favorable matchup against the Packers if they can establish the run and take advantage of single-high coverages. Defensively, the keys will be to contain Josh Jacobs, disrupt Jordan Love’s play action, and capitalize on pressure situations. With several injuries, the Texans' depth will be tested, but if they can execute in these critical areas, they should be in a good position to secure another victory. Prediction:  Texans 28, Packers 24